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October 23, 2004

Can't you just feel the momentum?

In a year when polls have been all over the place, anectodal evidence of just how this election might turn out seems as good as anything else. What you hear neighbors and strangers talking about is at least as reliable as polling organizations that admit they sample more Republicans than Democrats. Therefore, I get the feeling - yes, it's a feeling; it's not scientific - that things are trending our way. And even some surveys and other items in the news are beginning to show that. (By Rick Howell)

The New York Times is reporting today that Ohio Republicans are waging a massive campaign to have their people "monitor" polling places on Election Day to make sure that any voters whose legitimacy they suspect can be challenged. This has been rumored for a while, but has now emerged at the same time that it looks like John Kerry will win that state. Does the word "desperation" come to mind? Bush and the GOP have spent tremendous resources in Ohio, and now it looks like the only game they have left is to harass voters. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio. They know that and they're scared to death.

Meanwhile, here in good ole "reliably Republican" Virginia, the evidence continues to mount that we have a real race on our hands. My aging vehicle has failed a few times in the last couple of weeks, and I've spent time on buses and in auto repair shops. The conversations I've heard are very encouraging. You've heard the phrase "To look at him, you wouldn't know he has any money." Well, let's just say that some people have demonstrated the political equivalent of that to me in recent days. This is very subjective, of course. But other Kerry supporters have said they've seen and heard the same thing. People you might not expect to be with us - for whatever reason - are getting ready to vote for John Kerry.

If you sniff the political winds these days, you can smell the trouble for Bush. You can feel the momentum for Kerry. As an adult student at Lynchburg College, I get my own close-up view of what young voters are thinking. Last spring semester, I felt that Kerry supporters were outnumbered. But that has changed this fall. Kerry bumper stickers are far more prominent in the parking lot now than they were then. When I wear a Kerry shirt or button, it gets quite a positive reaction. And this is Lynchburg I'm talking about...

A national poll seems to confirm this. It shows that Kerry's lead among college students has increased to 13 points. College-aged youth are described as more likely to vote, and far more interested in political matters now than they have been in years. Then there are the seniors, the voting bloc that most reliably shows up at the polls. While waiting for a ride at a local fast food restaurant, I heard a grandmother tell her 14-year-old granddaughter that she was voting for Kerry. "No, you're not," said the youngster. "Yes, I am," was granny's reply.

Moments later, after the girl had said some critical things about Kerry, she spotted me and my Kerry button. She started whispering to granny that she'd "put her foot in her mouth." I spoke up and told her it was okay. But I showed granny my button and said, "Don't let her talk you out of voting." "Oh, I won't," she replied.

Call me unscientific. Call me whatever you want. But there's a feeling in the air which might even be better this year than the results of a Gallup Poll. Things are looking good for the Kerry-Edwards ticket.

(Rick Howell is chairman of the Amherst County Democratic Committee. He is Host of the Kerry Meet-Ups in Lynchburg. He can be reached at NewCenHowell@aol.com)

Posted by rickhowell at October 23, 2004 02:32 AM

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