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September 01, 2004

On Going Blue, Virginia

By David S. Kerr

It all began on election night 2000. Before then, if you had talked to someone about red states and blue states, no one would have had a clue what you were talking about. But, thanks to a chance choice of colors by the major networks in coding their state maps, the states that supported President Bush have been labeled red states, and those that supported Al Gore, are now called blue states. And, Virginia, of course, is a red state.

But the big question this year, the one the Republicans nervously dismiss, and the Democrats embrace with a vengeance, is will Virginia, once considered amongst the reddest of the red, turn blue?

The answer seems to be a qualified maybe.

First of all, let’s go back in time a bit, like, oh say, a hundred years or more, and quickly see just how red Virginia really has been. After the Civil War, once the reconstruction period had ended and the traditional pre-war power base of Virginia has resumed control of state politics, Virginia was a part of the Democratic Party’s “Solid South.”

Throughout the late 19th century and well into the 20th Virginia consistently supported Democratic Presidential candidates. Mind you, Teddy Roosevelt was popular in Virginia, and he garnered a respectable percentage of the vote in the 1904 election, but the prospects of Virginia supporting a Republican remained practically nil.

However, in 1928, Virginia’s first “blue” phase began. That year, when Democrat Al Smith ran against Herbert Hoover, Virginia apparently wasn’t ready for a Catholic urban candidate from the Big Apple and Hoover carried Virginia. Alas, that campaign was particularly nasty, with Virginia Republicans, ruthlessly exploiting fears about Smith’s religion. But, while the Republicans were crowing about their successes, along came the depression and Franklin Roosevelt. Virginia, like the rest of the South, suffering badly during the depression, enthusiastically supported FDR and the New Deal.

The election of 1948, the first election without FDR at the top of the ticket in 16 years, was a little more dicey. Harry Truman’s views on civil rights had made him unpopular with Virginia’s conservative Democratic Party establishment, and the outcome was by no means a given. However, Truman carried the mantle of the New Deal, one more time, and just edged out Tom Dewey.

In 1952 and 1956, Virginia, helped by Senator Harry Byrd’s “golden silence,” (Byrd was a Democrat, at least on paper, and beginning in 1948, refused to endorse national Democratic candidates and just stayed silent) would go for General Eisenhower. In 1960 Richard Nixon carried the state rather comfortably. The one exception, to what was already a twelve year Republican trend, would be Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Virginia saw a southerner in the White House, the first since the Civil War, and well, Barry Goldwater was just too far off the political spectrum for Virginians who were used to a more sedate form of conservatism.

After that, what followed would be eight straight Presidential elections where the GOP would carry Virginia. Jimmy Carter came close in 1976, carrying all of the states on our borders, but as hard as he tried, he never cracked the Old Dominion. Ford won by about two points. After awhile, even when Democrats ran the statehouse, and had a majority of the Congressional seats, it was still presumed that the GOP would always carry the Commonwealth in a Presidential election. For the most part, national candidates just passed us by.

However, with election 2004 just two months away, it seems that traditional wisdom is being challenged and a quick look at the results of the past few elections, and the changing demographics of the state, indicate that there may indeed be a change in the winds. Larry Sabato, as well as the Rasmussen and Zogby Polling organizations, all consider Virginia a “new marginal” and “in play.”

In fact right now, the August 23 Zogby Poll shows a decidedly close race. The President is at 49%, John Kerry at 48% and Ralph Nader at 4%. That means, recognizing that there is a margin of error in these polls of give or take 5%, the outcome is almost too close to call. As a long time Virginia political watcher, all I can say, is that I have never seen it this close.

For one thing, Republicans, while carrying the state for their Presidential candidates haven’t produced landslide victories for a long time. In fact, in looking at the numbers, recent contests have been decidedly close. In 1996 Bill Clinton lost Virginia to Bob Dole by just two points, and in 2000, if you take Al Gore’s 45% and Ralph Nader’s 2%, the two combined adds up to 47% of the electorate that didn’t vote for George Bush. That alone, should give the Democrats hope, and cause the Republicans to take pause.

Then there is the state itself. During the past twenty years, at an accelerating rate, the population of Virginia has become more urban and suburban and at the same time much more diverse. The Northern Virginia suburbs, as well as the burgeoning suburbs around Norfolk and Newport News, have grown massively. There are nearly two million registered voters in these regions and there is every indication that they are leaning towards John Kerry and by a margin substantially larger than they did in 2000. And it’s that margin of victory that may make all the difference.

In 2000 the Northern Virginia suburbs in particular – Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria – supported Al Gore. But not by that much. However, this year, the polls indicate a wider margin for these suburbs and it’s that expanded margin, perhaps combined with stronger than expected support elsewhere that may give John Kerry the edge in Virginia.

Another cause for concern for the GOP this year is the economy and in particular the loss of jobs. Whether it’s what remains of the textile industry along the Dan River, electronic assembly plants in the Virginia Highlands, or metal fabrication shops in Roanoke, the industrial base of rural Virginia is getting weaker. These, generally rural areas, where the GOP usually does well, aren’t quite so solid this year.

Then there is another factor. Governor Mark Warner, starting with his first run for statewide office in 1996, has always been popular in southern and southwest Virginia. The reason is simple. While the GOP generally took these voters for granted, paying little attention to the problems of rural Virginia, Warner’s message, focusing on better funding for education and economic development has made him the first Democrat in a long time to be a successful vote getter in rural Virginia. If he can personally weave this message into the Kerry campaigns theme about jobs that may be enough to push these normally conservative rural voters into the Kerry column. But it will probably take Mark Warner to do it.

The GOP, and particular their chairman, not surprisingly, still says this is all nonsense. Virginia is Republican and that’s that. But the reality is a little different. George Bush’s campaign can read the numbers and the President has visited Virginia three times this year and more visits are planned. Quite a lot for a state they keeping saying is in the bag.

The Democrats, for their part, are putting a tremendous amount of energy into Virginia. John Kerry and John Edwards have both visited on several occasions, the statewide organization is getting tuned up, and the TV ads have been running for weeks. As for the GOP, the situations is pretty direct. They're starting to get nervous and are growing progressively concerned that Virginia, contrary to decades of conventional wisdom, may indeed be getting ready to turn blue.

But there is one more thing to consider. If Virginia does turn blue, if the Commonwealth does support John Kerry, and if for the first time since I was in the first grade our electors go to Richmond and vote for a Democrat, what does this mean for the future of Virginia politics? Is it possible that after two decades of growing Republican strength that the GOP’s power in the state might be waning?

It’s possible and should John Kerry win Virginia in November it will certainly bode well for 2005 when Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine runs against the presumptive Republican nominee Jerry Kilgore. Just two years ago, the GOP considered Kaine an easy target. Indeed, I remember hearing several members of the General Assembly agree that Warner’s victory was an anomaly and that they would easily get the Governors mansion back in ‘05.

However, the Republicans aren’t saying that anymore, and should John Kerry win Virginia this year, or even just come really close, the conventional wisdom about the Commonwealth being a Republican friendly bastion might not be so true anymore.

While I wouldn’t expect to see control of our Congressional delegation or the General Assembly change hands overnight, a Kerry win, and the burst of Democratic energy that will surely follow, will probably embolden Virginia's Democrats. And who knows, some “safe seats” in the General Assembly or in Congress, when there is a strong Democratic challenger, inspired by a Kerry victory, might not be so safe for the GOP anymore.

Posted by laura at September 1, 2004 09:56 AM

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